By Wondimu Mekonnen, England UK, 08 July 2021
The Blue Nile Fall
“Ethiopia
Could become 21st Century Colony of Egypt” Rev. Jessy Jackson[1]
The Blue Nile is a cause of disagreement among
Egypt, The Sudan and Ethiopia. Since Egypt was the major benefactor of the Nile
so far, she acts if she had a sole proprietorship over the entire River Nile. In
fact, eleven countries have rights over the Nile. They are Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt,
Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea,
and Kenya.
The River Nile is made up of two rivers:
The White Nile and The Blue Nile. The White Nile Starts its journey from Lake
Victoria, in Tanzania, joins the Blue in Khartoum, Sudan, and travels 2,300
miles to water Egypt. The Blue Nile (Abay - ዓባይ in Amharic) starts its journey from the
highland of Ethiopia, Gojjam, from a spring called Gish Abay[2]
(translated the Baby Blue Nile), the voluminous among sixty revers flowing into
Lake Tana and flows, about 901 miles before it joins the White Nile, to form
The Nile. The irony is, the Blue Nile contributes 85%[3]
of the water that flows into the Nile Delta, in Egypt. The Nile is really the
Blue Nile.
The Dispute.
Although there are 11 Nile Basin countries, the dispute
is among the three countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. History tells us that
Egypt deployed her army and fought against Ethiopia from 1874 to 1876 to
control the source of the Blue Nile, but was devastatingly defeated (Czeslaw, 1959)
by Ethiopia. Can you believe Americans fought against Ethiopia alongside
the Egyptians (ibid)? During the scramble for Africa, British colonialists’
ambition was also the capturing of the source of the Nile. They partly succeeded
in subjugating four of the Nile Basin territories ruled nothing to construct on
the Nile without obtaining permission from their Headquarters in Cairo. When it
came to Ethiopia, however, they used their diplomatic skills to tie her down
with treaties. One such treaty is the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian treaty, whose main
objectives was the demarcation of border between Ethiopia and their colony, the
Sudan. However, outside the objective of the treaty, they maliciously inserted an
annex which forbids Ethiopia
constructing, any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat (Baro), without
the knowledge of His Britannic Majesty’s Government of the Sudan (Marcus,
1963). This has been taken as a
bible verse for the Egyptians, 65 years after the last British soldier left the
territory in 1956.
In 1929, Anglo-Egyptian
treaty signed between Egypt and Britain on behalf of her colonies, i.e., Sudan,
Kenya, Uganda and Tanganika, Britain made another favour to Egypt She recognised
Egypt’s historical and natural rights over the entire water of the Nile (Kimenyi
and Mbaku 2015). In 1959, Egypt made a benevolent gesture to the Sudan. She
allowed the Sudanese to use 18.5 billion cubic meters of 84 billion cubic
meter, while it would use 55.5 billion cubic meters, accounting the rest for
evaporation. The share of Ethiopia and the rest of the Nile Basin countries
were totally ignored as non-existent because their god, the British said so.
However, Ethiopia never
accepted any colonial treaties. As far as she is concerned the 1902 treaty was
about border demarcation although Britain had maliciously inserted something unrelated
to the boarder as an annex. Egypt should have learned from another similar colonial
treaty of 1989 at Wuchale called Ethio-Italian Treaty. Ethiopian sooner discovered
there was variations between the Italian and Amharic Translation of Article 17 which
led to the Battle of Adwa. Italy lost that war.
The Egyptians knew very
well that Ethiopia would not honour any colonial treaties signed behind her
back but still chose to cling to it. Egypt used various tactics to prevent
Ethiopia from using the water of the Blue Nile. She lobbied funders never to
give any money to Ethiopia that would allow her to build any dam over the Nile.
That was a successful tried and tested strategy by Egypt still working to this
day. If Ethiopia gets her own capacity to build the dam with her own internal
resources, Egypt threatened to take military action. At one point, President
Gamal Abel Nasser of Egypt was quoted for responding to a journalist who asked
him what he would do if Ethiopia built a dam over the Nile, “I will have my
breakfast in Cairo and lunch in Addis Ababa.”
Sometime in early 2011, Meles
Zenawi, the former Prime Minister of Ethiopia came over the study and the words
of his Imperial Majesty. Next morning, he announced his intensions on the
Parliament. On 02 April 2011, Ethiopia started the construction of Great
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Let us look at the
following facts[4]:
|
Country |
Renewable Water Resources, billion m3
/year |
Water Resources per capita, billion m3
/person/year |
Water Dependency, water coming from
outside the country, % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ethiopia |
122 |
1,162 |
0 |
|
Sudan |
38 |
933 |
96 |
|
Egypt |
58 |
589 |
98 |
The above table clearly shows
nothing flows from another country into Ethiopia, while 96% of Sudanese water
and 98% of the Egyptian the water, the Nile, flowed from the outside.
Let us look at another fact which may clearer the air:
Two Ethiopian adages explain this unfairness. One of them goes like: “I am denied the soft part of my own bread (በገዛ ዳቦዬን፣ ልብ ልቡን አጣሁት)” and the other goes like: “The mother of Abay (the Blue Nile) goes thirsty (የዓባይን እናት ውሀ ጠማት”). While Egypt and Sudan swim in Ethiopian waters, year in year out Ethiopia faces draught and famine. Why is that? The reason is that Egypt and Sudan had a pact that cuts out Ethiopia out of using her own rivers. Now all that is coming to end and they nervous.
At first, Egypt was not
bothered too much about the construction of the GERD, because she had made sure
no international funders would assist Ethiopia. She also believed Ethiopia did
not have the capacity to finance such a grand dam by her own. She thought Ethiopia’s ambitious foolish
dreams would never material. However, once started, Ethiopians started pulling
her resources internally and from the Diaspora.
The initial plan was to complete
the construction of the GERD in five years. One year later, on 20 August 2012, PM
Meles Zenawi was officially declared dead. Egypt thought the dream would die
with him. However, Ethiopians did not stop constructing it, though at a
terribly slow pace. The corrupt officials of the Tigray Liberation Front
(TPLF), Meles’s own party dragged it far too long. The construction seemed to
go nowhere as Egyptians predicted.
In 2018, TPLF corrupt
officials lost their grip to power, following Prime Minister Hailemariam
Dessalegn resignation. Dr Abiy Ahmed the new Prime Minister became the Prime
Minister. Things started moving. The new Prime Minister began stamping on the
corrupt officials. TPLF officials withdraw to their ethnic enclave, to Tigray
and holed there. Investigation was launched into why the construction of the
dam did not go as planned. The chief engineer was mysteriously killed alleged
to have committed suicide. Some corrupt high-ranking officials, including a top
general were arrested while attempting to leave the country. A new project management
team was brought in to run GERD construction. It progressed with a new vigour driving
Egyptians crazy.
As the new reformist
government started taking the GERD seriously, Egypt woke up from her hypnotic
stupor superiority complex. She became extremely agitated and started running up
and down like a headless chicken looking for a new weapon that would stop
Ethiopia. Military threats did not work. She started diplomatic onslaught. That
too did not carry her far because no one had the leash to pull Ethiopia back. She
was forced to the three party the negotiation table to end her monopoly over
the Nile River. She wanted to dictate her terms referring to those dead colonial
treaties that Ethiopia did not care about even when they were alive and kicking.
The Sudan, Egypt’s junior partner, was negotiating half-heartedly, because she
knew she would benefit from the construction of the dam, in many ways. However, she did not want to offend Egypt. She
knew first, the dam would save her from the annual flood that killed people and
animals and destroyed crops. Secondly, she would get cheap supply of
electricity. At the First Arab League on issue, Sudan stunned them taking an
opposite and refused to condemn Ethiopia.
 |
Photo: courtesy of Eng. Abebe Gashaw, my best friend who went
to Gojjam, the source of the Blue Nile, and took this picture depicting the
life of our poverty-stricken women collecting would fire to cook for their
family |
Whether Egypt likes it or
not, Ethiopia was going to finish building the dam. The only way out from this
quagmire for Egypt and Sudan is negotiation on the equitable use of the Blue
Nile River. Not military action, no orders from USA no threats from European
powers would stop Ethiopia from using her God-given water in any way she likes. No one has leash to stop the constructions the
dam because Ethiopia is building it with its own children’s sweat and blood.
Egypt found sympathy in the
USA who offered to mediate. Ethiopia rejected any external mediation, but the
three should sit together agree on how to share the water. Somehow, when PM
Abiy Ahmed went to the USA to take part on UN meeting, President Trump met him
and proposed to facilitate negotiations. His country was supposed to be an
observer. Well, Ethiopia agreed to that, but then Egypt wanted the lion’s share
of the water as the prescribed of her former colonial masters. Ethiopia rejected that outright. The meeting ended
without any solution. The USA dropped her observatory role and came up with a proposal
calling back all the three to come and sign it. After all these 100 years of
working with the Ethiopians, the USA did not know Ethiopia at all. Ethiopia categorically
rejected the mediation of the USA. If any mediator was needed, then it had to
be the African Union. That infuriated the USA. Trump with withheld some of the
aid money to Ethiopia. That did not break Ethiopia either. He suggested Egypt
bombed the Dam. That cost him election[6].
Fast forward! A milestone
on the project was achieved. Ethiopia went on to announce the first filling
would take place during June/July heavy rainy season of 2020. On 26 June 2020,
Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia agreed to delay filling the
dam for a few weeks. Nature took her own course of action before anyone could
say anything. Heaven opened her gates and poured the rain over Ethiopia. On 21
July 2020, Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, announced
that the first filling of the dam has been completed.
The early filling of the dam was attributed to the heavy rains
which had nothing to do with the Ethiopian Authorities. Egypt did not lose a
drop of water she needed as result of that. Neither the Sudan lost any. To the
contrary, the rain fall in Ethiopia was so heavy that Cairo was flooded. So
much for the cry of lack of water in Egypt. “Mach ado about nothing”!
And
yet, Egypt had been going mad for last year one year. She had enlisted the Arab
league, who had no leash over Ethiopia. She had appealed several times to the
Security Council but achieved nothing. She did not want the mediation of the
African Union in contempt of the organisation. No power on earth would stop
Ethiopia from finishing the dam and using her God given water to generate
electricity power.
The
second filling of the dam was fast approaching. Egypt has been crying for help.
Tunisia came to her rescue[7],
using her position as rotating presidency of the Security Council as
a non-permanent member. She unilaterally drafted a resolution to be discussed
and passed at UN Security Council meeting, on 08 June 2021, supposed to prevent
the second filling of the GERD. Well, even had the Security Council would have
unanimously passed that resolution, it had no power prevent the filling of the
dam. Nature once more pre-empted them. Once more, one day before the UN
Security Council came to sit to discuss Tunisian resolution, on 07 July, heaven
opened her gets again and started filling of the dam without asking anyone’s
permission. It is a rainy season. Rain is falling everywhere in Ethiopia. It
continues at the rate is raining now the second filling would soon be over.
However,
these days there is a military action talk on the corridors of Egyptian
authorities, after failing to gain Security Council Resolution and ordered the
parties to the negotiant table at the mediation of African Union. Bad idea.
Egypt
should realise that Ethiopia has no control over the nature. All she had done
was constructing the dam, waiting for the rain. Here we go again. Sudan was
flooded the other day. Egypt is getting its water. “Much ado about nothing!”
Conclusion and Recommendation to Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt
needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Ethiopia does not mean to harm her neighbours.
Therefore, cooperation and not confrontation solves her problem. All Egypt and
Sudan need to do is to sit together with Ethiopia and discuss about it.
There
is a more pressing issue that is threatening to dry up the Nile. Unless Egypt
and Sudan and all friendly international nations cooperate with Ethiopia, there
will be no Blue Nile water or the Nile Perch soon. Lake Tana, from where the
Blue Nile gets its largest proportion of the water has been invaded by an alien
weed, God knows where it came from! It is called water Hyacinth (እምቦጭ),
an invasive weed posing
a grave threat to Lake Tana. While Egypt and the Sudan are running
on the corridors of USA, UK, European Union, Arab League and United Nations, to
stop the construction of the GERD, Ethiopians have been fighting alone to
combat the weed for the last four years. Where are those who care about the
Nile? Just like our government is trying to construct the dam alone, the nation
is battling alone against the weed that is threatening to dry up Lake Tana. No
lake Tana means no Blue Nile. No Blue Nile means no Nile at all. If we fail
defeating the weed, it is not the dam that is going to deny water to Egypt, but
it would be the invasive alien weed.
If
Ethiopia loses the battle, against the weed, at least she has other rivers to
live on. Egyptians and the Sudanese are the big-time losers. Therefore,
attention should be diverted from fighting against the construction of the dam,
to battle against the weed.
This
dam is meant beneficial not just for Ethiopia alone, but also for Sudan, Egypt,
and neighbouring countries as it is going to regulate the environment and the
flow of the unruly Blue Nile water. Experts and scientists[8]
predict that if the dam is completed with the help and cooperation of countries,
it would be capable of handling a flood of 19,370 cubic metres per second,
would also reduce alluvium in Sudan by 100 million cubic metres facilitating
irrigation of around 500,000 hectors of new agricultural lands. It is also
expected to reduce 40km of flooding in Sudan, upon its completion. So, while
the benefits outweigh the cost, why not join it, rather crying wolf! “If you
don’t beat them, join them”.
References
1.
Jesman, Czeslaw (January 1959). "Egyptian Invasion of
Ethiopia". African Affairs. Oxford
University Press. 58 (230): 75–81. JSTOR 718057
2.
Marcus, Harold G: (1963) “A Background to Direct British
Diplomatic involvement in Ethiopia 1894 – 1896”, Journal of Ethiopian Studies,
Volume 1, No 2, pp 121-132.
3.
Kimenyi, Mwangi S and John Mukum Mbaku. (2015) The Limits of
the New Nile Agreement. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/04/28/the-limits-of-the-new-nile-agreement/
(Accessed: 11 July 2021)
4.
[1] https://ethio.news/2020/03/04/ethiopia-could-become-21st-century-colony-of-egypt/
[2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271492402_Gish_Abay_the_source_of_the_Blue_Nile
[3] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2015/04/28/the-limits-of-the-new-nile-agreement/#:~:text=About%2085%20percent%20of%20the,comes%20from%20the%20White%20Nile.
[4]
The facts are constructed from https://www.worldometers.info/water/ethiopia-water/
for Ethiopia, https://www.worldometers.info/water/sudan-water/
for Sudan and https://www.worldometers.info/water/sudan-water/
for Egypt
[5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/8/jordan-israel-agree-to-water-deal-more-west-bank-trade
[6] https://www.independent.co.ug/trump-warns-ethiopia-of-egyptian-attack-on-dam/
[7] https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/105810/When-Tunisia-s-draft-resolution-on-Ethiopian-Dam-crisis-to
[8] https://www.water-technology.net/projects/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-africa/#:~:text=The%20dam%20will%20be%20capable,in%20Sudan%2C%20upon%20its%20completion.
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